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McCain or Not McCain, That Is The Question

Posted by Mr Write on Saturday, February 09, 2008 4:34:23 AM
Well, McCain done blew away my Florida prediction, and then won by a wide margin Super Tuesday (in delegates, not total votes).

The guy grates me.  Over the last 3 days, I've been wavering back and forth over whether to support John in the general election.  I've read several articles about the issue, and every one I read (regardless of which side they're on) makes sense.  He's supported some pretty darn bad legislation (McCain-Feingold, McCain-Kennedy, and others), with a fair-to-middlin' rating from the ACU.

However, he is better than leftist Hillary, and DEFINITELY better than extremist Barak.  So, at this point, I've decided to support McCain, but only conditionally.  If he turns into a leftist during the campaign, I won't vote for him.  If he picks someone other than a conservative as his running mate, I won't vote for him.  If he continues to insult some of our great conservative commentators and leaders, I won't vote for him.

I am not alone in this.  I know there are thousands of others who feel like I do.  The good senator from Arizona is in a very fragile position from here to the election, and it won't take much to destroy the tenuous support from conservatives that he has right now.

Unfortunately, McCain is arrogant enough to pick a moderate (or, even worse, someone like Lieberman) as his running mate, saying that he is the conservative and that a moderate voice is needed on the ticket to "balance things out."  If he does that, there is no way he will win this campaign, because so many of us will simply not vote for him.
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Florida Prediction

Posted by Mr Write on Tuesday, January 29, 2008 1:10:54 AM
Florida's Republican Primary: Mitt Romney by at least 5 points, in spite of the endorsements for McCain.

It's all downhill for McCain after that.  However, if McCain wins, then we might be in for a liberal love fest (in which Hillary...the likely nominee in spite of Obama's surge...wins) in the general election (with conservatives not coming out to vote for McCain).  Then it's 4 years of socialism...will we survive it?

Quoting myself: I am also going to guess that Thompson is going to step out of the race after South Carolina  I was right, although the odds were in my favor!
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Delegates

Posted by Mr Write on Saturday, January 19, 2008 2:11:01 AM
Here is Hugh Hewitt's delegate chart.  REAL IMPORTANT, as it shows Romney with a commanding lead (note McCain's tepid delegate count).  Romney might win simply by getting second place in a bunch of states who choose a variety of winners).

Total Primary Votes: Romney McCain Huckabee Giuliani Thompson
Iowa 29,494 15,559 40,841 4,097 15,904
New Hampshire 75,202 88,447 26,760 20,387 2,884
Michigan 337,847 257,251 139,699 24,706 32,135
 
Total 442,543 361,257 207,300 49,190 50,923
Total Delegates: 52 15 22 1 6

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Nevadalina

Posted by Mr Write on Saturday, January 19, 2008 1:52:28 AM
Nevada is having its caucuses Saturday morning, which means that the winners of those caucuses will be out between 1 and 2 PM EST for Republicans and 3 and 4 PM for Democrats EST.

This is an interesting situation, as the results of Nevada could very well affect South Carolina's turnout.

McCain leads the Republican field by the slightest of margins in SC, with Huckabee nipping at his heels.  I expect Romney to win in Nevada, with McCain in second.  My opinion is: should Romney win, this might hurt McCain later in the day, because the margin is simply too close between Huckabee and McCain in South Carolina for the Mac to relax, and there might be enough SC pro-Thompson supporters (seeing their candidate is still way behind) and pro-Romney folks who might switch their vote to Huckabee, by far the more conservative of the two leaders.

I am also going to guess that Thompson is going to step out of the race after South Carolina, unless by some miracle he gets second place (or maybe first...right).  If he does step aside, this will help the more conservative candidates in the race, which is bad news for McCain, a classic Inside The Beltway politician if there ever was one.

On the Democrat side of this, Obama recently invoked Ronald Reagan as a true change agent, which cause leftists to scream foul (John Edwards being an example).  This is an interesting tactic (some say blunder, but I don't think so), because all of a sudden a Democrat is not towing the party line any more.  Any moderate Democrats, along with those appalled by the Clinton "juggernaut" (note the quote marks), may take notice that this guy isn't your classic pinko liberal and may just vote for him (we're just talking perceptions here...I still think he's a leftist, but MUCH LESS so than Hillary).  Once again, Nevada might change the South Carolina results, but I think the vote will favor Clinton.  RATS.
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Post-Michigan

Posted by Mr Write on Tuesday, January 15, 2008 9:57:07 PM
So...I never read ANYWHERE (until after the vote) that Hillary was the only major Dem on the ticket in Michigan.  So, I made a guess based on the trends, and was totally wrong.  She won with 61% of the vote.  However, I would think 70%-80% would be the range for her if she was popular among her own ranks.  34% of the remaining delegates remain uncommitted, showing a somewhat weak frontrunner, and I have a feeling these delegate votes might become crucial in the Democratic Convention if Obama and Clinton are running neck and neck in all the way to the end.

I think it is interesting that the rest of the Democrat candidates backed out of this primary when Michigan legislators moved it up on the calendar.  Typical that Clinton would stay in...People:  This woman is NOT about serving us...she is about serving HERSELF!

On the Republican side, Mitt looks to have done much better than anticipated.  I expected a mere 5% difference between the Mittster and McCain, but it looks like Romney''s running about 10 points ahead of his opponent.  NOT a completely comfortable lead, but better than it looked at first.

I do not think McCain is going to win another primary, except California perhaps and two or three Northeastern states and Arizona (his home state).  To quote Wolf Blitzer: "Now that Mike Huckabee has won Iowa, McCain - New Hampshire and now Mitt Romney in Michigan, the race for the Republican nomination is wide open"   (that bozo newsman assumes that McCain is going to remain a viable contender).  Actually, McCain is going to fade away, with Giuliani coming into play finally, but never getting enough delegates to win.

My guess is that Romney or Huckabee will win the nomination, with a possible from Giuliani or a surprise Thompson.  My least favorite among this group is Huckabee, a man I decided was pretty much a phony after listening to several interviews he had.

Still, I can support Huck over the "best" that the Democrats have (Hillary or Obama), who are worse than phony...they're downright evil or at the least hopelessly misguided.

Once again...we shall see.

UPDATE:  Mitt 39%, McCain 30% - Still looks good for Mitt.  Hillary 55%, Uncommitted 40%, looks worse for Hillary...you gotta do better than that if you are the only major candidate on the ballot!
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Squeakers in Michigan

Posted by Mr Write on Tuesday, January 15, 2008 3:17:19 PM
My predictions in Michigan for both parties are squeakers.

I predict a VERY CLOSE win for Mitt Romney, as that is his birth state, but McCain is going to make it a close thing.  Huckabee is going to capture a lot of the evangelical votes, so Romney is going to have a hard time of it, I think.  McCain can still win Michigan, if Romney does worse than I expect, but I am going with Romney for this one.  McCain's glory days are numbered, however, as more states allowing only Rebulicans to vote have their primaries.

On the Democratic side, this is a more crucial state than people realize.  If Obama pulls off a victory, then Hillary is going to have the political fight of her life.  If Hillary wins, Obama may fade away as the Clinton juggernaut takes hold.  I do NOT think a victory either way will be decisive quite yet, just more challenging to the losing side.

Edwards will take a chunk of votes away from Hillary's leftist base, so I am going for Obama getting the nod from Michigan (there's enough blind followers of his to carry him through).

The MSM is still expecting some sort of decisive and final victory (especially with McCain), but we still have MOST states still in play.  They just LOVE McCain because he is really quite liberal in a lot of his policies...typical of them, but very likely a misplaced confidence.
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Post-NH

Posted by Mr Write on Wednesday, January 09, 2008 5:40:04 AM
I was wrong about Obama winning in New Hamshire, but then I said it was close and that I was biased on that one.  Hillary can spin this all she wants as being the 2nd "Comeback Kid" (Bill being the first), but the reality is only 3%-4% of the vote more than Obama.  Her and her husband's current tactics (fake crying, insulting Obama, etc.) worked in NH, but alas won't work in South Carolina, and this leaves a great opening for Obama if he recognizes it.

I also guessed wrong about Mitt Romney, but once again, McCain only won with 5% of the vote more than Romney, and as Hugh Hewitt pointed out, Romney has the most delegates so far.

What I hate to see is the media writing off people so early.  I guess they're just trying to get people to read/watch their stuff, but it's still WAY too early for anyone to pull ahead in either party.

It is interesting to see Michael Medved's and Hugh Hewitt's interpretation of the results for their guy (Michael is rooting for McCain, Hugh is pulling for Romney).  I read both their post-election articles, and I have to agree with Hugh's view in this case.  However, Michael also had an excellent article about how the Republicans need to be more positive rather than negative like they've been.  He is RIGHT ON with that!  Have these candidates forgotten Reagan's wise saying: "Thou shalt not speak ill of a fellow Republican"  ?
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NH Preliminary

Posted by Mr Write on Sunday, January 06, 2008 12:27:18 PM
Adjusted predictions for NH:

1) Obama beats Clinton, but barely.  (this prediction is greatly biased by me, as that race is too close to call right now)

2) It looks like McCain is leading the Rebublicans in NH in some polls, but then, the media loves him ("maverick" means "liberal Rebulican In Name Only"), and that affects the accuracy of the polls somewhat.  Romney's in a statistical tie, and I predict a win for the Mittster.  Still, Mitt needs to back off attacking other opponents and tell the people WHY they should vote for HIM, rather than why they should NOT vote for OTHERS.  This is a losing strategy, I think, as the primaries continue.
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On to New Hampshire

Posted by Mr Write on Saturday, January 05, 2008 2:30:42 PM
1) Thanks, David, for that interesting stat!  I appreciate it.

2) Only the Republicans are having a caucus in Wyoming, so I take back my Democrat predictions.  Wyoming Rebubs lost have their delegates by moving their caucus so early...but it's such a small delegation that in most nomination cycles it won't make a difference.  It may this time around, but we shall see.

3) As the title of this blog posting says, ON TO NEW HAMPSHIRE!
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Hawkeye Cauci

Posted by Mr Write on Friday, January 04, 2008 12:19:49 AM
Well, I was wrong on a couple of points:

1) Huckabee beat Romney...I should have considered the many Christian conservatives in Iowa who like Huck.  They are a strong voting bloc in som parts of the country, so they will show their presence more than once during this nomination process.  I only hope they consider the liberal way Huckabee ran Arkansas before the next primary/caucus.

2) Edwards beat Hillary...Whoa!  I wasn't expecting that!!!  She needed to win Iowa, and now is in third.  New Hampshire may look at her more favorably, but I am going out on a limb to say that she may not recover if Obama wins more early primaries!

Hey, at least I was right about Thompson!  I hope he hangs on longer in case Huckabee falters (which is likely, I think)

Finally, I'd like to say that it's okay to predict winners of primaries and caususes, and even guess eventual winners, but some people commenting on Hugh Hewitt's site are really dissing good ol' Hugh and boldy predicting their particular candidates as the already-chosen presidential nominees (particularly the Huckabites).  He was wrong on his prediction of the outcome, but they need to get off his back.  They are really coming across as jerks.

UPDATE: More predictions.  Romney wins Wyoming, with Huckabee in third and Thompson in third. (That is the next state...before New Hampshire!).  Obama, then Hillary and Edwards for the Dems.
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Iowa Is Just The Beginning

Posted by Mr Write on Wednesday, January 02, 2008 1:27:23 AM
Iowa is just the beginning, not the end to all things...no matter what the MSM says.

My predictions:

DEMS: Obama is going to win Iowa, with Clinton a few percentage points behind.  Clinton wins New Hampshire, then it's "Who knows?" after that.  Either one is a poor choice for the country, and I hope the majority of voters recognize that.

REPUBS: Romney wins Iowa, with Huckabee a close second, and Fred Thomas a tepid third.  Romney will also win New Hampshire, and will likely get the nomination, although it's WAY too early too tell for certain, especially as Giuliani-prone states check in.

See you after New Hampshire.
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Amnesty Bill Defeated and stuff...

Posted by Mr Write on Wednesday, June 13, 2007 12:09:43 AM
So, Harry Reid and the Dems, along with the RINOs, couldn't get the amnesty bill passed this last week.  Quite the relief, as many, many Americans voiced their protest to this travesty.  Now, these clueless bozos are going to try to resurrect the bill, so keep vigilant!

For the Republican nomination, Fred Thompson is in a statistical tie with Rudy Giuliani in Rasmussen's most recent poll.  Bad news for New York's former mayor, because Thompson hasn't even thrown his hat in the ring.  In that same poll, Romney is fighting McCain for third place.  While many expected McCain to fade away with his stance on the Amnesty bill (dropping 3 percentage points), Romney dropped 4 POINTS!  This is an interesting development, because it looks like many conservatives who in times past chose Romney chose Thompson instead, with perhaps some other conservatives perhaps abandoning McCain for Fred T.

If the primary elections were held today, I would say that Clinton wins the Democrat nomination, but Obama actually does better against Republicans in a face-off of nominee vs nominee.  Clinton loses against Giuliani and McCain in a similar face-off.

We'll see how things are in another week; but, obviously, this is SO EARLY...some mistakes are bound to be made by one or more candidates.  The two undeclared candidates are Thompson and Gore, who could throw the whole thing into chaos before this is over with by announcing themselves.
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Biting The Hands That Feed You

Posted by Mr Write on Thursday, May 31, 2007 11:49:22 PM
President Bush did untold damage to himself and the Republican Party the other day when he harshly criticized people who disagreed with him on the Amnesty bill (oops...I'm sorry...the Immigration bill).  Did he think that the conservatives in the party were just going to put their hands over their mouths because a Repub is in the White House?!  Who does this guy think he is?!

Sure, he is supposedly strong on defense, but...is he really?  One of the most glaring holes in "homeland security" is the continuous flow of illegals across our borders.  And many, many Americans are looking at the situation and criticizing the many flaws of the amnesty (sorry...did it again...immigration) plan.  They don't trust our government to protect us anymore, and they don't trust our government to do ANYTHING substantive to stop these illegals from BREAKING THE LAW!

In the meanwhile, the RNC (Republican National Committee) fired ALL 65 of it's phone soliciters!  The RNC says the phone system is outdated, but if that were the case, they could have easily afforded a new phone system.  Many of the employees are saying they were fired for another reason...that donations are WAAAAAY off as the base rebels against the RINOs.

No, this is a sign of bad things to come for the RNC and all the RINO politicians in Washington DC who are willing to sell us down the river for a little more power.

They think they can bully the conservatives, but remember, RINOs, it is the conservatives that have made the phone calls, talked to their neighbors, walked the precincts, and bent over backwards to put these people in office.  If elected officials ignore them, no other group of voters turns away from these politicians in bigger numbers than conservatives.

This bill and the firings of the RNC phone soliciters are the catalyst to a new party that may bring enough democrats (little d) along, and kick both parties out of Washington DC.  It hasn't happened in a long time, but it sure is due!


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Border Security Article

Posted by Mr Write on Saturday, May 26, 2007 7:31:15 PM
Earlier today, I came across an excellent article by Wayne Simmons regarding our porous borders.

Some great ideas from this article:
1. The tasking of satellites dedicated to scanning our southern and northern borders.

2. Serious fence and wall barriers along the borders with listening posts throughout the less densely traveled regions of our borders.

3. The development of the United States Border Intelligence Agency. This agency would be a fully budgeted, independent intelligence gathering agency tasked to develop intelligence for the protection of our borders as well as run independent or joint task force operations against our enemies trying to penetrate our borders. They would conduct covert espionage activities worldwide, seeking out, penetrating and thwarting the plans of the black-market intelligence operators who hire themselves out to terrorists, drug smugglers and all others seeking to enter the US illegally.

4. The creation and deployment of Rapid Deployment Response Teams (RDRTs) a new, highly skilled, highly trained paramilitary unit culled from our current Special Forces Units, capable of responding to any part of our borders within 15 minutes, fully armed and whose commander reports only to the chain of command of the newly formed United States Border Intelligence Agency.


Secure the borders BEFORE letting any more illegals in and BEFORE granting any kind of amnesty or worker status to the ones already here.
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