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Florida Prediction

Posted by Mr Write on Tuesday, January 29, 2008 1:10:54 AM
Florida's Republican Primary: Mitt Romney by at least 5 points, in spite of the endorsements for McCain.

It's all downhill for McCain after that.  However, if McCain wins, then we might be in for a liberal love fest (in which Hillary...the likely nominee in spite of Obama's surge...wins) in the general election (with conservatives not coming out to vote for McCain).  Then it's 4 years of socialism...will we survive it?

Quoting myself: I am also going to guess that Thompson is going to step out of the race after South Carolina  I was right, although the odds were in my favor!
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Delegates

Posted by Mr Write on Saturday, January 19, 2008 2:11:01 AM
Here is Hugh Hewitt's delegate chart.  REAL IMPORTANT, as it shows Romney with a commanding lead (note McCain's tepid delegate count).  Romney might win simply by getting second place in a bunch of states who choose a variety of winners).

Total Primary Votes: Romney McCain Huckabee Giuliani Thompson
Iowa 29,494 15,559 40,841 4,097 15,904
New Hampshire 75,202 88,447 26,760 20,387 2,884
Michigan 337,847 257,251 139,699 24,706 32,135
 
Total 442,543 361,257 207,300 49,190 50,923
Total Delegates: 52 15 22 1 6

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Nevadalina

Posted by Mr Write on Saturday, January 19, 2008 1:52:28 AM
Nevada is having its caucuses Saturday morning, which means that the winners of those caucuses will be out between 1 and 2 PM EST for Republicans and 3 and 4 PM for Democrats EST.

This is an interesting situation, as the results of Nevada could very well affect South Carolina's turnout.

McCain leads the Republican field by the slightest of margins in SC, with Huckabee nipping at his heels.  I expect Romney to win in Nevada, with McCain in second.  My opinion is: should Romney win, this might hurt McCain later in the day, because the margin is simply too close between Huckabee and McCain in South Carolina for the Mac to relax, and there might be enough SC pro-Thompson supporters (seeing their candidate is still way behind) and pro-Romney folks who might switch their vote to Huckabee, by far the more conservative of the two leaders.

I am also going to guess that Thompson is going to step out of the race after South Carolina, unless by some miracle he gets second place (or maybe first...right).  If he does step aside, this will help the more conservative candidates in the race, which is bad news for McCain, a classic Inside The Beltway politician if there ever was one.

On the Democrat side of this, Obama recently invoked Ronald Reagan as a true change agent, which cause leftists to scream foul (John Edwards being an example).  This is an interesting tactic (some say blunder, but I don't think so), because all of a sudden a Democrat is not towing the party line any more.  Any moderate Democrats, along with those appalled by the Clinton "juggernaut" (note the quote marks), may take notice that this guy isn't your classic pinko liberal and may just vote for him (we're just talking perceptions here...I still think he's a leftist, but MUCH LESS so than Hillary).  Once again, Nevada might change the South Carolina results, but I think the vote will favor Clinton.  RATS.
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Post-Michigan

Posted by Mr Write on Tuesday, January 15, 2008 9:57:07 PM
So...I never read ANYWHERE (until after the vote) that Hillary was the only major Dem on the ticket in Michigan.  So, I made a guess based on the trends, and was totally wrong.  She won with 61% of the vote.  However, I would think 70%-80% would be the range for her if she was popular among her own ranks.  34% of the remaining delegates remain uncommitted, showing a somewhat weak frontrunner, and I have a feeling these delegate votes might become crucial in the Democratic Convention if Obama and Clinton are running neck and neck in all the way to the end.

I think it is interesting that the rest of the Democrat candidates backed out of this primary when Michigan legislators moved it up on the calendar.  Typical that Clinton would stay in...People:  This woman is NOT about serving us...she is about serving HERSELF!

On the Republican side, Mitt looks to have done much better than anticipated.  I expected a mere 5% difference between the Mittster and McCain, but it looks like Romney''s running about 10 points ahead of his opponent.  NOT a completely comfortable lead, but better than it looked at first.

I do not think McCain is going to win another primary, except California perhaps and two or three Northeastern states and Arizona (his home state).  To quote Wolf Blitzer: "Now that Mike Huckabee has won Iowa, McCain - New Hampshire and now Mitt Romney in Michigan, the race for the Republican nomination is wide open"   (that bozo newsman assumes that McCain is going to remain a viable contender).  Actually, McCain is going to fade away, with Giuliani coming into play finally, but never getting enough delegates to win.

My guess is that Romney or Huckabee will win the nomination, with a possible from Giuliani or a surprise Thompson.  My least favorite among this group is Huckabee, a man I decided was pretty much a phony after listening to several interviews he had.

Still, I can support Huck over the "best" that the Democrats have (Hillary or Obama), who are worse than phony...they're downright evil or at the least hopelessly misguided.

Once again...we shall see.

UPDATE:  Mitt 39%, McCain 30% - Still looks good for Mitt.  Hillary 55%, Uncommitted 40%, looks worse for Hillary...you gotta do better than that if you are the only major candidate on the ballot!
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Squeakers in Michigan

Posted by Mr Write on Tuesday, January 15, 2008 3:17:19 PM
My predictions in Michigan for both parties are squeakers.

I predict a VERY CLOSE win for Mitt Romney, as that is his birth state, but McCain is going to make it a close thing.  Huckabee is going to capture a lot of the evangelical votes, so Romney is going to have a hard time of it, I think.  McCain can still win Michigan, if Romney does worse than I expect, but I am going with Romney for this one.  McCain's glory days are numbered, however, as more states allowing only Rebulicans to vote have their primaries.

On the Democratic side, this is a more crucial state than people realize.  If Obama pulls off a victory, then Hillary is going to have the political fight of her life.  If Hillary wins, Obama may fade away as the Clinton juggernaut takes hold.  I do NOT think a victory either way will be decisive quite yet, just more challenging to the losing side.

Edwards will take a chunk of votes away from Hillary's leftist base, so I am going for Obama getting the nod from Michigan (there's enough blind followers of his to carry him through).

The MSM is still expecting some sort of decisive and final victory (especially with McCain), but we still have MOST states still in play.  They just LOVE McCain because he is really quite liberal in a lot of his policies...typical of them, but very likely a misplaced confidence.
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Post-NH

Posted by Mr Write on Wednesday, January 09, 2008 5:40:04 AM
I was wrong about Obama winning in New Hamshire, but then I said it was close and that I was biased on that one.  Hillary can spin this all she wants as being the 2nd "Comeback Kid" (Bill being the first), but the reality is only 3%-4% of the vote more than Obama.  Her and her husband's current tactics (fake crying, insulting Obama, etc.) worked in NH, but alas won't work in South Carolina, and this leaves a great opening for Obama if he recognizes it.

I also guessed wrong about Mitt Romney, but once again, McCain only won with 5% of the vote more than Romney, and as Hugh Hewitt pointed out, Romney has the most delegates so far.

What I hate to see is the media writing off people so early.  I guess they're just trying to get people to read/watch their stuff, but it's still WAY too early for anyone to pull ahead in either party.

It is interesting to see Michael Medved's and Hugh Hewitt's interpretation of the results for their guy (Michael is rooting for McCain, Hugh is pulling for Romney).  I read both their post-election articles, and I have to agree with Hugh's view in this case.  However, Michael also had an excellent article about how the Republicans need to be more positive rather than negative like they've been.  He is RIGHT ON with that!  Have these candidates forgotten Reagan's wise saying: "Thou shalt not speak ill of a fellow Republican"  ?
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NH Preliminary

Posted by Mr Write on Sunday, January 06, 2008 12:27:18 PM
Adjusted predictions for NH:

1) Obama beats Clinton, but barely.  (this prediction is greatly biased by me, as that race is too close to call right now)

2) It looks like McCain is leading the Rebublicans in NH in some polls, but then, the media loves him ("maverick" means "liberal Rebulican In Name Only"), and that affects the accuracy of the polls somewhat.  Romney's in a statistical tie, and I predict a win for the Mittster.  Still, Mitt needs to back off attacking other opponents and tell the people WHY they should vote for HIM, rather than why they should NOT vote for OTHERS.  This is a losing strategy, I think, as the primaries continue.
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On to New Hampshire

Posted by Mr Write on Saturday, January 05, 2008 2:30:42 PM
1) Thanks, David, for that interesting stat!  I appreciate it.

2) Only the Republicans are having a caucus in Wyoming, so I take back my Democrat predictions.  Wyoming Rebubs lost have their delegates by moving their caucus so early...but it's such a small delegation that in most nomination cycles it won't make a difference.  It may this time around, but we shall see.

3) As the title of this blog posting says, ON TO NEW HAMPSHIRE!
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Hawkeye Cauci

Posted by Mr Write on Friday, January 04, 2008 12:19:49 AM
Well, I was wrong on a couple of points:

1) Huckabee beat Romney...I should have considered the many Christian conservatives in Iowa who like Huck.  They are a strong voting bloc in som parts of the country, so they will show their presence more than once during this nomination process.  I only hope they consider the liberal way Huckabee ran Arkansas before the next primary/caucus.

2) Edwards beat Hillary...Whoa!  I wasn't expecting that!!!  She needed to win Iowa, and now is in third.  New Hampshire may look at her more favorably, but I am going out on a limb to say that she may not recover if Obama wins more early primaries!

Hey, at least I was right about Thompson!  I hope he hangs on longer in case Huckabee falters (which is likely, I think)

Finally, I'd like to say that it's okay to predict winners of primaries and caususes, and even guess eventual winners, but some people commenting on Hugh Hewitt's site are really dissing good ol' Hugh and boldy predicting their particular candidates as the already-chosen presidential nominees (particularly the Huckabites).  He was wrong on his prediction of the outcome, but they need to get off his back.  They are really coming across as jerks.

UPDATE: More predictions.  Romney wins Wyoming, with Huckabee in third and Thompson in third. (That is the next state...before New Hampshire!).  Obama, then Hillary and Edwards for the Dems.
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Iowa Is Just The Beginning

Posted by Mr Write on Wednesday, January 02, 2008 1:27:23 AM
Iowa is just the beginning, not the end to all things...no matter what the MSM says.

My predictions:

DEMS: Obama is going to win Iowa, with Clinton a few percentage points behind.  Clinton wins New Hampshire, then it's "Who knows?" after that.  Either one is a poor choice for the country, and I hope the majority of voters recognize that.

REPUBS: Romney wins Iowa, with Huckabee a close second, and Fred Thomas a tepid third.  Romney will also win New Hampshire, and will likely get the nomination, although it's WAY too early too tell for certain, especially as Giuliani-prone states check in.

See you after New Hampshire.
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